Mapping the State of Financial Stability

The paper uses the Self-Organizing Map for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing the sources of systemic risks on a two-dimensional plane as well as for predicting systemic financial crises. The Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) enables a two-dimensional representation of a multidimensional financial stability space and thus allows disentangling the individual sources impacting on systemic risks. The SOFSM can be used to monitor macro-financial vulnerabilities by locating a country in the financial stability cycle: being it either in the pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis or tranquil state. In addition, the SOFSM performs better than or equally well as a logit model in classifying in-sample data and predicting out-of-sample the global financial crisis that started in 2007. Model robustness is tested by varying the thresholds of the models, the policymaker’s preferences, and the forecasting horizon.systemic financial crisis; systemic risk; self-organizing maps; visualisation; prediction; macroprudential supervision

Mapping the state of financial stability

The paper uses the Self-Organizing Map for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing the sources of systemic risks as well as for predicting systemic financial crises. The Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) enables a two-dimensional representation of a multidimensional financial stability space that allows disentangling the individual sources impacting on systemic risks. The SOFSM can be used to monitor macro-financial vulnerabilities by locating a country in the financial stability cycle: being it either in the pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis or tranquil state. In addition, the SOFSM performs better than or equally well as a logit model in classifying in-sample data and predicting out-of-sample the global financial crisis that started in 2007. Model robustness is tested by varying the thresholds of the models, the policymaker’s preferences, and the forecasting horizons. JEL Classification: E44, E58, F01, F37, G01macroprudential supervision, prediction, Self-Organizing Map (SOM), Systemic financial crisis, systemic risk, visualization

Relationships between climate and winter cereal grain quality in Finland and their potential for forecasting

Many studies have demonstrated the effects of climate on cereal yield, but there has been little work carried out examining the relationships between climate and cereal grain quality on a national scale. In this study national mean hectolitre weight for both rye and winter wheat in Finland was modelled using monthly gridded accumulated snow depth, precipitation rate, solar radiation and temperature over the period 1971 to 2001. Variables with significant relationships in correlation analysis both before and after difference detrending were further investigated using forward stepwise regression. For rye, March snow depth, and June and July solar radiation accounted for 66% of the year-to-year variance in hectolitre weight, and for winter wheat January snow depth, June solar radiation and August temperature accounted for 62% of the interannual variance in hectolitre weight. Further analysis of national variety trials and weather station data was used to support proposed biological mechanisms. Finally a cross validation technique was used to test forecast models with those variables available by early July by making predictions of above or below the mean hectolitre weight. Analysis of the contingency tables for these predictions indicated that national hectolitre weight forecasts are feasible for both cereals in advance of harvest

Identification of a D-galacturonate reductase efficiently using NADH as a cofactor

D-galacturonate reductases are catalysing the reversible reduction of D-galacturonate to L-galactonate using NAD(P)H as a cofactor. The enzymes are part of two different pathways. One pathway is the fungal pathway for the catabolism of the main compound of pectin, D-galacturonate. The other pathway is a a pathway in plants for L-ascorbic acid synthesis. The previously described naturally occurring enzymes preferably use NADPH as a cofactor. Although certain D-galacturonate reductases, such as the reductases from Aspergillus niger or Euglena gracilis also accept NADH, their activity is significantly higher with NADPH. We identified in E. gracilis a gene, called gaa1, coding for a D-galacturonate reductase with similar activities with NADH and NADPH. It is potentially useful for the metabolic engineering of microbes to make use of pectin rich biomass

Eettinen sensitiivisyys lääketieteen opiskelijoilla ennen ja jälkeen etiikkakurssin

Only abstract. Paper copies of master’s theses are listed in the Helka database (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Electronic copies of master’s theses are either available as open access or only on thesis terminals in the Helsinki University Library.Vain tiivistelmä. Sidottujen gradujen saatavuuden voit tarkistaa Helka-tietokannasta (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Digitaaliset gradut voivat olla luettavissa avoimesti verkossa tai rajoitetusti kirjaston opinnäytekioskeilla.Endast sammandrag. Inbundna avhandlingar kan sökas i Helka-databasen (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Elektroniska kopior av avhandlingar finns antingen öppet på nätet eller endast tillgängliga i bibliotekets avhandlingsterminaler.Tutkimuksessa kartoitetaan lääketieteen opiskelijoiden läpikäymän etiikkakurssin vaikutusta heidän eettiseen sensitiivisyyteensä. Tutkimuksessa myös pyritään selvittämään, ovatko tutkittavat moraalisesti motivoituneita eli arvostavat moraaliarvoja tärkeimpinä arvoinaan ja löytyykö eettisen tutkittavien eettisen sensitiivisyyden ja arvojen väliltä yhteisvaihtelua. Aikaisemman tutkimuksen pohjalta oletetaan, että etiikkakurssin kasvattaa tutkittavien eettistä sensitiivisyyttä. Hypoteesina myös esitetään, että tutkittaville tärkeimmät arvotyypit ovat universaalisuus sekä hyväntahtoisuus eli tutkittavat ovat moraalisesti motivoituneita, ja että eettinen sensitiivisyys korreloi universaalisuus- ja hyväntahtoisuusarvotyyppien kanssa eli eettisesti sensitiiviset henkilöt ovat myös moraalisesti motivoituneita. Teoreettisena viitekehyksenä tutkimukselle toimii James Restin teoria moraalin neljästä komponentista. Moraalia ja etiikkaa on perinteisesti lähestytty vain moraalisen päätöksenteon näkökulmasta eli keskitytty siihen, kuinka yksilö päätyy päätökseen siitä, mikä on moraalisessa ongelmatilanteessa oikea tai väärä toimintatapa. Restin teoriassa moraalisen päätöksenteon rinnalle tuodaan kolme muuta moraalin osa-aluetta: eettinen sensitiivisyys (eettinen ongelma pitää pystyä havaitsemaan ja ymmärtämään, jotta päätös toimia moraalisesti voidaan tehdä), moraalinen motivaatio (halu toimia moraalisesti) sekä moraalinen selkäranka (voimavarat toimia moraalisesti). Moraalista motivaatiota käsitellään Shalom Schwartzin arvoteorian kautta, jossa moraalisesti motivoituneiden ihmisten oletetaan preferoivan universalismi- ja hyväntahtoisuusarvotyyppejä. Tutkimuksessa analysoidaan aineistoa, joka kerättiin kolmannen vuoden lääketieteen opiskelijoilta Internetissä täytetyllä kyselylomakkeella ennen ja jälkeen heidän suorittamansa lyhyen etiikkakurssin, joka sisälsi Schwartzin arvoteoriaan perustuvaan Portrait-arvokyselyyn sekä kolme eettisiä ongelmia sisältävää kuvitteellista vastaanottotapausta, joihin tutkittavat saivat vastata, mitä tekisivät tapauksen lääkärin asemassa. Analyysin avulla saatiin selville, mitä arvotyyppejä tutkittavat preferoivat ja mikä heidän eettisen sensitiivisyytensä taso on. Tutkimuksen tulokseksi saatiin, että tutkittaville tärkeimmät arvotyypit olivat hyväntahtoisuus, universaalisuus, ja itseohjautuvuus eli he olivat moraalisesti motivoituneita. Eettisessä sensitiivisyydessä tapahtui tilastollisesti melkein merkitsevää edistymistä kurssin aikana. Tilastollisesti merkitsevää yhteyttä eettisen sensitiivisyyden ja eri arvotyyppien välillä ei havaittu, paitsi tarkasteltaessa eettisessä sensitiivisyydessä edistyneitä vastaajia, joiden eettisen sensitiivisyyden keskiarvo korreloi mielihyväarvotyypin suhteellisen merkityksen keskiarvon kanssa tilastollisesti merkittävästi. Lopuksi tutkimuksessa pohditaan, tuloksia ja aikaisempaa tutkimusta peilaten, voiko eettistä sensitiivisyyttä opettaa, voisiko moraalisen motivaation jakaa pitkä- ja lyhytkestoiseen sekä tuodaan esille moraalin monitahoista luonnetta ja käydään läpi tutkimuksen puutteita sekä lisätutkimuksen tarvetta

Results of the German Software Industry Survey 2013

This is the second year that we execute the Software Industry Survey in Germany and publish a report with the main results. As formulated in 2012, our goal is to investigate the current state of the German software industry on a yearly basis. Conclusions are made based on grounded data and empirical findings. We hope that this type of research will contribute to the work of both, practitioners and researchers

Interconnectedness of the banking sector as a vulnerability to crises

This paper uses macro-networks to measure the interconnectedness of the banking sector, and relates it to banking crises in Europe. Beyond cross-border financial linkages of the banking sector, macro-networks also account for financial linkages to the other main financial and non-financial sectors within the economy. We enrich conventional early-warning models using macro-financial vulnerabilities, by including network measures of banking sector as potential determinants of banking crises. Our results show that a more central position of the banking sector in the macro-network significantly increases the probability of a banking crisis. By analyzing the different types of risk exposures, our evidence shows that credit is an important source of vulnerability. Finally, the results show that early-warning models augmented with interconnectedness measures outperform traditional models in terms of out-of-sample predictions of recent banking crises in Europe.JRC.G.1-Financial and Economic Analysi

Dynamics of attachment and emotion regulation in daily life : uni- and bidirectional associations

Attachment theory proposes that the activation of the attachment system enacts emotion regulation (ER) to maintain security or cope with insecurity. However, the effects of ER on attachment states and their bidirectional influences remain poorly understood. In this ecological momentary assessment study, we examined the dynamics between attachment and ER. We hypothesised that attachment states and ER influence each other through time. Specifically, we hypothesised bidirectional short-term cycles between state attachment security and reappraisal, state attachment anxiety and rumination, and state attachment avoidance and suppression. We also tested how trait attachment is related to state attachment and ER. One hundred twenty-two participants (M-age = 26.4) completed the Experiences in Close Relationship-Revised and reported state attachment and ER seven times daily for seven days. The results were only partly consistent with our cycle hypotheses yet revealed a cycle between low state attachment security and rumination that was attenuated by reappraisal. Moreover, rumination and suppression predicted increased insecure states, and reappraisal predicted increased secure and insecure states. Finally, trait attachment showed associations with state attachment and ER. Our study suggests regulatory dynamics between attachment and ER and opens important questions about their functional relationship in maintaining attachment-related behavioural patterns and emotional well-being.Peer reviewe

Sustained diabetes risk reduction after real life and primary health care setting implementation of the diabetes in Europe prevention using lifestyle, physical activity and nutritional intervention (DE-PLAN) project

Background: Real life implementation studies performed in different settings and populations proved that lifestyle interventions in prevention of type 2 diabetes can be effective. However, little is known about long term results of these translational studies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the maintenance of diabetes type 2 risk factor reduction achieved 1 year after intervention and during 3 year follow-up in primary health care setting in Poland. Methods: Study participants (n = 262), middle aged, slightly obese, with increased type 2 diabetes risk ((age 55.5 (SD = 11.3), BMI 32 (SD = 4.8), Finnish Diabetes Risk Score FINDRISC 18.4 (SD = 2.9)) but no diabetes at baseline, were invited for 1 individual and 10 group lifestyle counselling sessions as well as received 6 motivational phone calls and 2 letters followed by organized physical activity sessions combined with counselling to increase physical activity. Measurements were performed at baseline and then repeated 1 and 3 years after the initiation of the intervention. Results: One hundred five participants completed all 3 examinations (baseline age 56.6 (SD = 10.7)), BMI 31.1 (SD = 4.9)), FINDRISC 18.57 (SD = 3.09)). Males comprised 13% of the group, 10% of the patients presented impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and 14% impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Mean weight of participants decreased by 2.27 kg (SD = 5.25) after 1 year (p = 5% was achieved after 1 and 3 years by 27 and 19% of the participants, respectively. Repeated measures analysis revealed significant changes observed from baseline to year 1 and year 3 in: weight (p = 0.048), BMI (p = 0.001), total cholesterol (p = 0.013), TG (p = 0.061), fasting glucose level (p = 0.037) and FINDRISC (p = 0.001) parameters. The conversion rate to diabetes was 2% after 1 year and 7% after 3 years. Conclusions: Type 2 diabetes prevention in real life primary health care setting through lifestyle intervention delivered by trained nurses leads to modest weight reduction, favorable cardiovascular risk factors changes and decrease of diabetes risk. These beneficial outcomes can be maintained at a 3-year follow-up.Peer reviewe